9.6 | Jubo Glass Weekly Review (No.74): Golden‑September expectations lead, glass futures rally, weak spot pattern persists.

Weekly Trend of Glass Futures and Spot Prices (8.31-9.4)

Glass futures prices trended upward amid volatility this week, with the FGM glass continuous contract rising by 37 RMB per tonne over the week.

Glass spot prices saw narrow adjustments this week, and the national average market price fell by 2 RMB per tonne month‑on‑week.

Weekly Analysis of Glass Futures and Spot Market

• Fundamentals

Supply side: Water‑draining preparations for one production line are pending implementation this week, while the overall operating rate showed no notable change. Industry inventories remained at high levels. Manufacturers maintained active shipments with partial price adjustments. De‑stocking was observed across multiple regions, and industry inventories decreased by 0.50% week‑on‑week.

Demand side: Manufacturers adjusted quotations to boost shipments, lifting overall trading performance to some extent. No material improvement was seen in corporate purchasing demand, and some market participants remained cautious. Production‑sales performance varied evidently across regions.

• Technical aspect

The major glass contract moved higher in volatile trading, hitting a weekly high of 989 and a low of 930. Weekly trading volume stayed elevated, whereas open interest declined during the week. Capital rotated via position reduction, and fierce long‑short contention persisted.

On the technical front, the weekly K‑line closed as a medium‑bodied bullish candle with a lower shadow. Prices climbed above the 5‑week and 10‑week moving averages. The earlier low‑level consolidation platform was validated, and bearish momentum further faded. Nonetheless, overhead pressure from trapped long positions prevented a decisive trend breakout. In terms of volume and open‑interest dynamics, trading volume expanded at the start of the week alongside a drop in high open interest, reflecting fresh long position building and existing short position liquidation. Volume offered decent support during the late‑week rally, yet sustained surging volume was absent. The upward momentum was corrective rather than a full‑blown uptrend.

• Market Outlook

Fundamentally, the market has entered the traditional “Golden September” peak‑demand window. Purchasing activity only improved marginally without substantial volume growth. Mid‑ and downstream enterprises remained prudent with limited willingness for proactive restocking, forming a pattern of “optimistic expectations versus soft realities”.

Technically, short‑term trading points to bullish‑biased volatility capped by overhead trapped positions. Without strong fundamental catalysts, range‑bound choppy moves are highly probable. The market is pricing in two major expectations: peak‑season demand recovery and loss‑driven production shutdowns. Real‑world spot demand delivery and actual implementation of production‑line maintenance remain key verification metrics.

Disclaimer: Market investment carries risks. Please make independent and prudent decisions. All data and information herein are sourced from public online materials. The opinions are only for industry discussion and do not constitute investment advice. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content.